How do they compute mosquito activity?

I have been curious how they compute mosquito activity by the weather, does anyone know the formula they use or how it is arrived at for forecast like has or cornells mosquito page? Do you know what factors they use to determine this?

I have no idea whether there is a formula, but I would suspect that they take into account factors like recent rainfall (to create puddles), humidity (to keep puddles from drying out) and temperature (to speed development of larvae).

Can you post a link to the Cornell page?

easy, drop me outside. If there is just one Mosquito in all of Polk County… it will bite me.

I have found some information about what effects mosquito activity, but I decided to ask the weather director at the university and this was his reply below,

Hi Michael,

I am afraid that there is just not one single formula that is used in our mosquito prediction activity. The estimates are based on a model that is several hundred lines of computer code. Also the model is species specific and hence would not be applicable to the boothill of Missouri. has figured a way to predict activity for the entire United States area, although I am guessing their predictions are more generalized as compared to Cornell’s. Cornell has some information as to GGD dates, humidity, etc, but nothing that would give me a general formula that I would feel good about using.

The Weather. com link is

The Cornell link is

I have found that there are over 55 different species of mosquito’s in Missouri, also many of the things I have found are more geared towards comparing estimates to actual counts, with many incorporating historical data, which I dont have.

I have put my research on hold till I have more time to try and understand it, and to find out if there are other weather correlations with ticks, flea’s etc and increased activity based upon current weather conditions. It is interesting none the less.

Thanks for the links, that’s interesting.

Knowledge of weather patterns is important during ground and aerial mosquito control applications. High winds, low temperatures, rainfall, and high humidity can deter the product from getting to the target, influence the dispersal of the material applied, and deter it from reaching its target, thereby affecting the efficacy of the application.