On 1-Jan-2025 I installed WXSIM 2024 V1.1 version and switched to CMX version V4 with numbers instead of monthnames in monthly logfilenames.
Since then almost all forecast runs have been provided a very high or low peak in the temperature for the first hours of the forecast (regardless if done at 21:00, 09:00, 15:00 or 18:0).
I am wondering if other users see the same phenomen or have an idea what could be the root cause:
- new version WXSIM 2024 V1.1
- my specific weather situation in Lower Austria in January
- or a wxsim preference or setup that i changed or overlooked
As a consequence also my MAE increased: wxsim MAE chart
Examples of latest.txt
latest.txt
CALIBRATION RUN:
DATE TIME TEMP WIND R.HUM %SC %VST VIS PC/HR RN TOT WEATHER
25 Jan 10:47 0,9 10 83 100 13 5,7 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 11:17 1,0 10 82 100 18 13,8 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 11:47 1,2 9 81 100 18 13,6 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 12:17 1,3 10 80 100 18 13,5 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 12:47 1,4 9 80 100 18 12,8 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 13:17 1,5 9 79 100 18 11,4 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 13:47 1,6 9 79 100 18 11,7 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 14:17 1,7 6 79 100 17 6,8 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
25 Jan 14:47 1,7 9 79 100 18 10,6 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
FORECAST RUN:
DATE TIME TEMP WIND R.HUM %SC %VST VIS PC/HR RN TOT WEATHER
25 Jan 15:00 43,0 10 99 100 10 1,8 4 0,0 DNS.OVCST CHNC. DRZL
No convective shower or thunderstorm activity expected
25 Jan 15:30 36,5 9 100 93 31 9,4 12 0,0 CLOUDY LIGHT RAIN
Numerous thunderstorms likely, some heavy or severe
25 Jan 16:00 27,9 6 100 97 40 12,1 7 0,2 CLOUDY PROB. SHWR
Scattered showers or thundershowers possible
25 Jan 16:30 22,7 5 100 99 38 13,1 5 0,2 CLOUDY PROB. SHWR
Convective showers very unlikely
25 Jan 17:00 18,8 4 100 99 39 14,4 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
No convective shower or thunderstorm activity expected
25 Jan 17:30 15,8 3 100 100 40 15,6 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
SURFACE WIND NOW FROM E
25 Jan 18:00 13,7 3 100 100 40 16,8 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 18:30 12,2 2 100 100 39 18,0 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 19:00 11,1 2 100 100 38 19,0 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 19:30 10,3 2 100 100 38 19,9 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 20:00 9,7 3 100 100 38 20,8 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 20:30 9,3 4 100 100 38 21,6 2 0,2 CLOUDY MOD. DEW
25 Jan 21:00 9,0 4 100 100 39 22,5 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
25 Jan 21:30 8,9 5 100 100 39 23,4 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
25 Jan 22:00 8,8 6 99 100 40 24,3 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
25 Jan 22:30 8,8 7 99 100 40 25,1 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
25 Jan 23:00 8,8 7 99 100 40 26,1 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
25 Jan 23:30 8,9 8 99 100 40 27,8 2 0,2 CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
FORECAST RUN:
DATE TIME TEMP WIND R.HUM %SC %VST VIS PC/HR RN TOT WEATHER
20 Jan 9:00 -39,0 11 100 75 37 5,1 2 0,0 M.C.-CLDY LT. FROST
No convective shower or thunderstorm activity expected
20 Jan 9:30 -28,1 15 71 74 56 6,2 1 0,0 P.-M.CLDY LT. FROST
20 Jan 10:00 -15,6 19 30 91 60 7,0 0 0,0 P.-M.CLDY
20 Jan 10:30 -8,9 21 20 100 57 7,9 0 0,0 M.CLOUDY
20 Jan 11:00 -5,3 21 18 100 55 8,7 0 0,0 M.CLOUDY
20 Jan 11:30 -3,1 20 16 100 53 9,5 1 0,0 M.CLOUDY
20 Jan 12:00 -1,4 19 16 100 51 10,2 1 0,0 M.C.-CLDY
20 Jan 12:30 -0,3 19 16 100 49 10,8 1 0,0 M.C.-CLDY
20 Jan 13:00 0,5 18 17 100 46 11,3 1 0,0 M.C.-CLDY
I am using a GFS:ECMWF ratio of 30:70 (euromix), data from McMahon
and the following setup
wxsim setup and MAE.